→ Shutting Down Strasburg

Rob Neyer:

One thing I keep noticing, though, is this bizarre belief that if only Stephen Strasburg is allowed to pitch, the Nationals will win the World Series, or probably win the World Series, or maybe they won’t win the World Series but they’ll have a lot better chance with Strasburg than without him.

It’s just not true. With Strasburg, the Nationals’ chances of winning the World Series are somewhere between 10 and 15 percent. Without Strasburg, the Nationals’ chances of winning the World Series are somewhere between 10 and 15 percent. With him, maybe it’s 12.8 percent. Without him, maybe it’s 10.6 percent.

I guess I had not been looking at the numbers that way. I feel better about the Nationals shutting hum down after seeing that1.